ANZ reported that the number of newspapers and online job advertisements rebounded sharply in June, but the potential labor market weakness seems to continue.
According to data released by ANZ on Monday, the number of Australian job advertisements increased by 4.6% in June, reversing the damage caused by the April Easter holiday and the May federal election.
The number of ads in June reflected the biggest increase in 18 months, but ANZ chief Australian economist David Plank said that after more than 8% of the decline in May, these numbers were only partially restored.
“The holiday year effect in the end of April’ and the timing of the election seems to be the main reason for the decline in May, and the rebound in June can be seen as a rebound in this effect.”
Mr. Plank said the overall trend is still down.
“This represents a slowdown in employment growth and an increase in unemployment,” he said.
“If confirmed by actual employment data, the Reserve Bank of Australia may respond by lowering the cash rate again.”
After an unexpected rise in the previous month, the unemployment rate remained at an unsatisfactory 5.2% in May.
The Reserve Bank of Australia lowered its cash rate to a new low of 1% last week, trying to erode the surplus labor market capacity.
Weak inflation, continued weakness in the real estate market and sluggish consumer spending are also obstacles to economic growth. Economists generally predict that Christmas will cut interest rates by another 25 basis points to 0.75%.
At the same time, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported on Monday that as of February 2019, half of the country’s 1.1 million underemployed part-time staff were actively looking for more jobs.
The labor participation rate report shows that the same proportion of underemployed part-time staff has experienced more than a year of underemployment, and 16.8% are preparing to move to other states to get the right job.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics said that the underemployment rate in the past decade has roughly doubled from 500,000 in February 2008.
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