The release of the 2016 Census data provides a good opportunity to reflect the future growth of Australian cities. Is there a better future use case than Tokyo?
The city is often the subject of a futuristic vision and has experienced one of the fastest post-war population growth periods in the world. The Greater Tokyo area has a population of 38 million – nearly 60% more than the Australian population. However, Tokyo is still one of the most liveable metropolises in the world.
How can Australian cities replicate this magic while retaining their high level of livability? We have identified five lessons from the experience of Tokyo.
Lesson 1: Managing the pain of urban growth
Tokyo was destroyed at the end of the Second World War. The city has undergone rapid reconstruction and development. The population of central Tokyo with a population of 13.5 million increased from 3.5 million in 1945 to 11.6 million in 1975.
This 30-year growth rate is almost twice that of the Greater Melbourne forecast, for example, from 4.4 million today to 8 million in 2050.
The rapid growth of Tokyo has brought many negative effects. These include very significant environmental pollution. The basic method during this period is to grow first and clean up later.
The consequence of Tokyo is the chaotic pattern of urban development – spread. The answer includes more rigorous planning controls and land readjustment plans to improve environmental conditions and ensure the effectiveness of the infrastructure.
The lesson of Australian cities is that in the face of rapid population growth, better forward-looking planning is the only way to avoid or reduce negative impacts.
Lesson 2: Introducing Metropolitan Governance
A key factor in Tokyo’s livability is the role of metropolitan governance in ensuring good planning and coordination.
The Tokyo Metropolitan Government was established in 1943. In contrast, for Australian cities, metropolitan coordination is an exception, not a rule. For example, in Greater Melbourne, the Victorian Planning Bureau played an important role but lacked the supervision of local political representatives. On the other hand, the governors and members of the Tokyo Metropolitan Government are responsible to the voters.
The Tokyo government also has considerable political autonomy because 70% of its revenue comes from local taxes. In 2014, its budget was 13 trillion yen (A$151 billion) – comparable to Sweden. This makes the governor of Tokyo one of the most powerful politicians in Japan, second only to the prime minister.
The Tokyo government’s approach has always involved strong intervention policies, and it places great emphasis on infrastructure development and relies on public-private partnerships to achieve results.
Lesson 3: Assuring world-class public transport as soon as possible
For most of the 20th century, the development of public-private partnerships for metropolitan railways has been the standard method of Japanese cities and continues to consolidate Tokyo’s success as a global city. For example, Mitsubishi Corporation played an important role in the development of the Marunouchi area around Tokyo Station. The latter was built in 1914 and connected to intercity stations in decades before other cities.
These public-private interventions have consolidated Tokyo’s position as a transit-oriented metropolis. The city is by far the most used city in the world for public transportation.
Compared with other major cities such as Seoul, London, New York and Beijing, Tokyo people rely more on public transportation, cycling or walking. In the Tokyo area, railways account for 48% of travel, buses account for 3%, bicycles account for 14%, and walks 23%. Private car use accounts for only 12% of travel.
Continued investment in above-ground and underground rail networks will ensure that Australian cities are better able to adapt to projected population growth. The fascinating map designed by Adam Mattinson shows how the Melbourne Metro system based on the Tokyo model looks. To achieve this goal, it may be necessary to move the tram system underground – almost certainly a dream.
Lesson 4: Economy decarbonizes with economic growth
In an age when climate change is not a recognized problem today, Tokyo is fortunate to be able to grow rapidly.
The challenge for Australian cities will be to increase the economy while reducing greenhouse gas emissions to match Tokyo’s per capita level and then further cut them. According to the World Bank, Sydney’s per capita emissions in 2006 were 20.3 tons of carbon dioxide, compared with 4.89 tons in Tokyo.
Compared with 2000, Tokyo is also seeking to reduce emissions by 30% by 2030. For example, in Australia, the goal of planning Melbourne is to reach a net zero emissions target by 2050, even if the population continues to grow.
While investing in low-carbon public transportation is critical to achieving this goal, the pursuit of ambitious energy efficiency and renewable energy goals is also critical.
Tokyo’s goal is to reduce energy consumption by 38% and renewable energy from 8.7% in 2014 to 30% in 2030. The good news is that Melbourne plans to set a 40% power generation for renewable energy. 2025.
Lesson 5: Preparing for dignity and aging
As the intensity of emissions declines, Tokyo’s population may begin to shrink. The population of central Tokyo is expected to increase from today’s 13.5 million to the peak of 2020 and then to 7.1 million by 2100. The population of Greater Tokyo is expected to reach approximately 38.5 million at the same time.
Like Tokyo, the population of Australian cities will reach a certain level of stability at some point. The next lesson will be how to deal with the aging of the population and the potential population decline.
As recently demonstrated by the census, the decline in home ownership is the result of delays in determining the birth of a child. Therefore, the knock-on effect may be the reason why the Australian population is getting older.
Today’s Tokyo is certainly not a utopia, because it is vulnerable to earthquakes and other natural disasters, high housing prices, homelessness, increased inequality, lack of multiculturalism and a certain proportion of housing as rental housing, which dwarfs Australia (47.9% vs. 30.9) Than) %).
However, the largest settlement on the planet provides useful lessons – history, present and future – that can guide other countries’ urban policies.