National Australia Bank forecasts a quarterly economic growth of only 0.2 percentage points, bringing the annual growth rate to 1.2%. The latest survey of the retail industry shows that the recent tax cuts and interest rate cuts have not yet entered the national retail industry.
According to statistics from the Bureau of Statistics, retail sales in Australia fell by 0.1% in July 2019 after seasonal adjustment. Sally Auld, chief economist at JPMorgan Chase, said, “If we use the average of the past five or six years, then the growth rate is now 1%. What these data tells us is that after we adjust population growth, the economic growth rate is already in the past. It has slowed down a lot in a decade or so.”
Some “potential benefits” brought about by the recession
Without China’s unmet need for Australian raw materials such as iron ore and coal, Australia will already be at risk of a recession – a recession is defined as a two-quarter GDP decline. The latest inspection of the Australian trade situation shows that the sector remains strong.
According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the largest quarterly surplus of recorded goods and services was A$19.9 billion and the income deficit narrowed to A$13.9 billion, prompting Australia’s seasonally adjusted current account surplus of 5.9 billion in the June 2019 quarter. Australian dollar. However, even Australia’s export industry faces many global economic threats, such as the Sino-US trade war and the Brexit. “In the next 12 months, the probability of a global recession is about 40%,” Sally Auld said.
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